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The underlying mechanism of the ongoing seismic swarm in the Noto Peninsula, Japan, which generates earthquakes at 10 times the average regional rate, remains elusive. We capture the evolution of the subsurface stress state by monitoring changes in seismic wave velocities over an 11-year period. A sustained long-term increase in seismic velocity that is seasonally modulated drops before the earthquake swarm. We use a three-dimensional hydromechanical model to quantify environmentally driven variations in excess pore pressure, revealing its crucial role in governing the seasonal modulation with a stress sensitivity of 6 × 10⁻⁹per pascal. The decrease in seismic velocity aligns with vertical surface uplift, suggesting potential fluid migration from a high–pore pressure zone at depth. Stress changes induced by abnormally intense snow falls contribute to initiating the swarm through subsequent perturbations to crustal pore pressure. 

Low-frequency earthquakes, atypical seismic events distinct from regular earthquakes, occur downdip of the seismogenic megathrust where an aseismic rheology dominates the subduction plate boundary. Well situated to provide clues on the slip regime of this unique faulting environment, their distinctive waveforms reflect either an unusual rupture process or unusually strong attenuation in their source zone. We take advantage of the unique geometry of seismicity in the Nankai Trough to isolate the spectral signature of low-frequency earthquakes after correcting for empirically derived attenuation. We observe that low-frequency earthquake spectra are consistent with the classical earthquake model, yet their rupture duration and stress drop are orders of magnitude different from ordinary earthquakes. We conclude their low-frequency nature primarily results from an atypical seismic rupture process rather than near-source attenuation. 

Abstract We investigate spatiotemporal changes of intermediate‐depth earthquakes in the double seismic zone beneath Central and Northeastern Japan before and after the 2011 magnitude 9 Tohoku earthquake. We build a template‐matching catalog 1 year before and 1 year after the Tohoku earthquake using Hi‐net recordings. The new catalog has a six‐fold increase in earthquakes compared to the Japan Meteorological Agency catalog. Our results show no significant change in the intermediate‐depth earthquake rate prior to the Tohoku earthquake, but a clear increase in both planes following the Tohoku earthquake. The regions with increased intermediate‐depth earthquake activity and the post‐seismic slips following the Tohoku earthquake are spatially separate and complementary with each other. Aftershock productivity of intermediate‐depth earthquakes increased in both planes following the Tohoku earthquake. Overall, aftershock productivity of the upper plane is higher than the lower plane, likely indicating that stress environments and physical mechanisms of intermediate‐depth earthquakes in the two planes are distinct.